What happens to my Golden Visa if Portugal leaves the EU?

What Happens to Your Portugal Golden Visa if Portugal Leaves the EU in 2025?

Current Context: Portugal and the EU

Hypothetical Scenario: Impact on Your Golden Visa

1. Residency Status in Portugal:
   • Your Golden Visa would likely remain valid for residency in Portugal, as it is a national program governed by Portuguese law, not EU regulations. The permit allows you to live, work, and study in Portugal, and these rights would persist unless the government explicitly alters the program.
   • You’d need to maintain your investment (e.g., €500,000 fund, €250,000 donation) and meet residency requirements (7 days/year) to keep the permit active, regardless of EU status.
2. Schengen Area Access:
   • A major Golden Visa benefit is visa-free travel across the 27 Schengen countries for 90 days out of 180. If Portugal left the EU, it might exit the Schengen Area (though not guaranteed, as non-EU countries like Norway and Switzerland participate).
   • Impact: You could lose Schengen-wide mobility, limiting your visa-free travel to Portugal only, unless Portugal negotiated to stay in Schengen or you obtained another visa for EU countries.
3. Path to Citizenship:
   • After five years, Golden Visa holders can apply for Portuguese citizenship, requiring a basic A2 Portuguese test and a clean record. If Portugal left the EU, a Portuguese passport would no longer confer EU citizenship, reducing its global value (e.g., visa-free access to 170+ countries might drop significantly).
   • Impact: Your citizenship application would still proceed, granting a Portuguese passport, but it would lack EU privileges like living or working freely across the bloc.
4. Investment Implications:
   • Your investment (e.g., fund, business) would remain tied to Portugal’s economy. An EU exit could cause economic turbulence—currency devaluation, market instability, or reduced foreign investment—potentially affecting your investment’s value or returns.
   • Impact: You’d still need to maintain the investment for five years to retain residency, but financial risks could increase.
5. Program Continuity:
   • The Golden Visa’s existence depends on Portuguese policy. An EU exit might prompt reforms, such as tightening investment rules or phasing out the program to align with new economic priorities, as seen in other countries post-EU shifts.
   • Impact: Existing permits would likely be honored (similar to pre-Brexit UK residency programs), but future renewals or applications could face stricter conditions.

Precedent: Brexit Comparison

• Pre-Brexit UK residency programs (e.g., Tier 1 Investor) continued for existing holders, with rights to live in the UK preserved.
• EU mobility ended, requiring separate visas for EU travel.
• Citizenship remained valuable domestically but lost EU-wide privileges. If Portugal left, similar principles might apply: your residency would likely stay intact, but EU-related benefits could vanish unless bilateral agreements preserved them.

Likelihood of Portugal Leaving the EU

• Political Stability: Portugal’s government and major parties support EU membership, with no significant “exit” movement reported in 2025. Public opinion favors the EU for economic benefits (e.g., trade, funding).
• Economic Dependence: Portugal relies on EU markets (70% of exports), eurozone stability, and EU tourism. Exiting would risk severe economic disruption, making it highly improbable.
• Global Context: Post-Brexit challenges (e.g., UK’s trade losses) deter EU exits, and Portugal’s integration (e.g., Schengen, euro) is deeper than the UK’s was.

Key Considerations for Golden Visa Holders

• Residency Security: Your permit is tied to Portugal, not the EU, so domestic rights are likely safe even in a hypothetical exit.
• Plan for Mobility: If Schengen access is critical, consider securing citizenship within five years (pre-exit, if ever) to retain an EU passport, or explore visas for other EU countries as a backup.
• Investment Monitoring: An EU exit could impact funds or businesses, so choose stable investments (e.g., CMVM-approved funds) and consult financial advisors.
• Citizenship Timing: Applying for citizenship after five years locks in long-term security, mitigating risks of future policy shifts.
• Stay Informed: Monitor Portuguese and EU news for any political shifts, though no immediate concerns exist in 2025.

Updates as of April 2025

• EU Membership Intact: Portugal shows no signs of leaving the EU, with strong economic and political ties reaffirmed in recent policy statements.
• Program Stability: The Golden Visa operates normally, unaffected by EU status, with focus on funds, research, businesses, and donations since the 2023 real estate phase-out.
• AIMA Operations: AIMA’s processes remain efficient, ensuring residency renewals and applications (6–12 months) are unaffected by speculative scenarios.

Tips to Safeguard Your Status

1. Maintain Compliance: Keep your investment active and meet residency requirements (7 days/year) to secure your permit, regardless of EU status.
2. Work with Experts: An immigration lawyer can advise on long-term risks and ensure renewals align with current rules.
3. Aim for Citizenship: Pursue citizenship after five years to gain a Portuguese passport, hedging against hypothetical policy changes.
4. Diversify Plans: If EU access is vital, consider residency options in other EU countries as a fallback, though Portugal remains stable.

Conclusion